No 140, Oct 20: The Grumbler's County Cricket Newsletter
🟢 Modi: H*ndred is a non-starter 🔴 My 'secret expert' savages the biz plan 🟣 Teflon Tom back in cricket? 🟤 Oval's record Champ crowds 🔵 McGrath quits Essex for Yorks 🟠 Surrey, Somerset signings
Skip this intro if you are bored of me talking about the sale of franchises in the tournament-that-shall-not-be-named.
But given the number of you who have contacted me for information about writing to the Department of Culture, Media and Sport (as well as your MP) clearly it vexes a fair few. (Click here to add your email and I’ll send details about how to join the campaign)
As I have written many times before, if this competition develops as I believe then it will lead to the end of county cricket as we have known it - huge haves-and-havenots disparity, a couple of clubs will disappear, even greater marginalisation etc
Since I last wrote, Lalit Modi has utterly trashed the tournament in even greater detail on this podcast.
We know his chequered reputation but, in this case, his opinions are based on the ECB’s own projections. The numbers he discusses are there for all to see and he knows the Indian market in detail. If as he says, the BCCI will not release players to an outside tournament “in his lifetime” then I fail to see how revenues will grow in anything like the way The Richards believe. Meanwhile, this story from SportsPro says the media rights market is pretty flat.
As you might expect, the ECB have been briefing away (see stories). Forget Harrison and Graves, the Richards are driving this bus over the cliff now. It is their u-turn, their direction and it will be their legacy.
Moneymen bowl into cricket as stakes in the H*ndred go on sale | Times
IPL considering multi-team contracts for players in boost to the H*ndred | Telegraph
ECB hierarchy 'confident in our product' as H*ndred bids deadline looms | ESPNcricinfo
Err… so the MCC’s question to their members re: franchise sales is worded as “do we want to accept the gift or not?”
Kind of hiding the true danger don’t you think?
Northamptonshire county cricket needs 'voice' in Hundred sale | BBC News
The H*ndred has left us with Ollie Pope – a poor man's Ben Stokes | Telegraph
The Home of Bilious Inadequates, Vile Ignoramuses and Social Media Zealots | Being Outside Cricket
Gould is talking about over 100 expressions of interest but, yet again, warning that they will not be giving away franchises cheaply.
I am no economist but this reads as the worst of both worlds, lots of inquiries but threats of relatively little revenue. In that case, you have to look at the product or its valuation.
But do not believe me, trust my expert contributor who has been party to more documents that are in the public domain. For that reason, they are anonymous but their credentials are impeccable and, unlike me, they are not particularly wedded to one side or another.
It makes for sobering reading…
Views on The Hundred Sale Prospectus
The sales process for The Hundred has been ongoing for some time, with the ECB having sent interested parties a sales document and an accompanying business plan. Having reviewed these documents, my thoughts are as follows:
Income
Lalit Modi has been highly critical of the income projections for The Hundred. I have to say I agree. The rights fees forecast is very optimistic and raises several fundamental questions:
The BBC has not, as of publication, renewed its free-to-air rights. It was paying £3.8m per year and is forecasted to pay £3.0m per year going forward. The fact that a deal has not yet been made suggests the BBC is not even willing to pay at that level. The ECB would not want to put a figure lower than £3m in the business plan, given the message that would send.
Sky’s rights fee rises from £37.8m in 2024 to £54.3m in 2025 (when the new rights deal kicks in). Given that the overall ECB/Sky deal was reported as flat (or negative after inflation), this means the ECB has allocated a greater value to The Hundred from the same pot. This raises several questions:
a. Does Sky value the rights at that level, or is it the ECB? If The Hundred is sold separately, it will be interesting to see what value is placed on it. As a four-week tournament on Pay TV, does it attract any additional subscribers beyond those already watching international cricket? I find it hard to believe that it does, in which case the standalone value is likely below £37.8m, never mind £54.3m.
b. If the rights are sold together, the ECB has said it will make a fair allocation to The Hundred. Any bidder will want to know what this allocation is, and it's possible an increase will be baked into the deal. The forecast assigns a value of £85m per year from 2029. In a declining rights market, with no indication that this trend will change, a 56% increase on what is already likely an artificially high number seems overly optimistic.
c. If the ECB has to top up The Hundred's revenue through internal accounting transfers, it means less money will be allocated to international cricket. Note that the revenue from international cricket is transferred to the counties. So, those counties that are not hosting a Hundred franchise will suffer a double blow: they don’t get a franchise, and their future income is raided to boost the value of The Hundred's sale. As we've seen in other sports, selling future income to finance present needs is sheer folly.
International rights are forecast to rise from £2.1m per year to £34m by 2032. This is based on Indian and North American rights both generating £15m per year. As Modi points out, that kind of value is unheard of for rights from another territory. The only justification would be if Indian players were allowed to join The Hundred. Modi argues that the IPL’s agreement with the BCCI would not allow it. Even putting that aside, with the international cricket calendar and the expanding IPL schedule, why would Indian players, even if permitted, play for what are relatively small sums to them?
Ticket prices are projected to rise significantly in the model—by 79% for the Manchester Originals and 95% in London. While this is from 2024 to 2032, there is a concern that The Hundred’s core purpose—to attract new audiences—will be compromised to boost income (and therefore sale value). To be fair, 15% of tickets are ringfenced with minimal price increases, but this highlights a clear conflict between making the game more accessible and charging high ticket prices. Currently, 23% of ticket sales are to children.
Sponsorship values are also aggressively forecasted to increase. While I’m not an expert, it’s worth noting that the sponsorship market is far more challenging than it was in the past. These forecasts seem optimistic.
Costs
Team salaries are projected to rise from £1.9m per year to £5.3m by 2029. This, of course, depends on income forecasts being met. Without that revenue increase, salaries will need to be kept in check. If that happens, the top players may not participate. That said, is any league outside the IPL likely to experience significant growth moving forward? The possible exception might be the US, but even that would depend on securing a decent broadcast deal in what is a very competitive US media landscape.
Host counties receive a venue hire fee. This rises from £0.3m/£0.4m (non-London/London) to £0.8m/£1.0m per year from next season. While there will be costs to cover, this feels like yet another opportunity for host counties to earn more money at the expense of non-host counties.
Other
The document states that cricket participation has risen from 9.3m in 2018 to 14.7m in 2023. This is encouraging, presumably driven by All-Stars and the growth of the women’s and girls’ game. Anecdotal evidence, however, suggests that men’s club cricket has lost teams over the same period.
The document rightly highlights the success of the women’s Hundred and women’s cricket in general. The key question is whether a more commercialized Hundred will be willing to continue cross-subsidising the women’s game. This needs to be built into the contracts, though it may create a conflict for the ECB, as it could reduce the sale value.
The document paints a very positive picture of The Hundred’s place in the UK sports broadcast value chain. I assume potential bidders will conduct their own due diligence on this.
Summary
Overall, the sales documents are based on a very optimistic income model and present a highly favourable spin on The Hundred. There is a clear conflict between the ECB’s role as a guardian of the game and its desire to achieve the best possible price. Will securing that price divert more funds from international cricket (and therefore the counties), and what will the impact be on the continued cross-subsidization of the Women’s Hundred?
PS. I am on Threads. Join me there as Twitter has been ruined. Also here are my social media links - Facebook | Instagram
PPS I have set up a County Cricket Chat space on Reddit - r/CountyCricketChat
PPPS If you want to get involved in any groups to change this situation. Then there is the County Cricket Members Group and, of course, the Cricket Supporters Association.
Player moves, contracts, news
Matthew Fisher: Surrey sign Yorkshire fast bowler for 2025 season | BBC Sport
Fisher capture signals Surrey hungry for more success | Petersfield Post
Meredith confirmed for Somerset return in 2025 | ESPNcricinfo
Gleeson back with Bears for 2025 Blast | Edgbaston
Ben Geddes: Middlesex sign Surrey batter on three-year deal | BBC Sport
Matt Quinn: Kent bowler signs one-year contract extension for 2025 | BBC Sport
Colin Ingram signs for another 2 years at Glamorgan | Glamorgan CCC
Jaydev Unadkat signs two-year deal | Sussex CCC
Saqib Mahmood 'still has Test ambition' despite signing Lancashire white-ball deal | ESPNcricinfo
Charlie Allison agrees new two-year deal | Essex CCC
Feroze Khushi to leave Essex | Essex CCC
George Lavelle to leave Lancashire | Lancashire CCC
Durham trio Jonathan Bushnell, Brandon Glover and Oliver Gibson to leave club | BBC Sport
Follow player signings for 2025 with our county ins and outs page | ESPNcricinfo
County Season - clear-up
Season Reviews 2024 | Deep Extra Cover
Surrey create new role to keep ‘irreplaceable’ Stewart | Liphook Herald
The Kia Oval draws record crowds for domestic cricket - Kia Oval
Anthony McGrath to depart Essex after nine seasons | Essex CCC
Martyn Moxon returns to Yorkshire three years after being sacked over Azeem Rafiq race furore | Telegraph
Awards
Dawson and Elwiss Lead Hampshire & Southern Vipers End Of Season Awards | Utilita Bowl
Glamorgan and Balconiers’ End-of-Season Awards Winners Announced | Glamorgan CCC
David Bedingham scoops three awards at Durham’s Annual Awards evening - Durham CCC
Porter, Callaghan and Stack take top accolades at 2024 End of Season Gala Dinner | Essex CCC
End of Season Gala Dinner 2024 - Full list of award winners | News | Gloucestershire Cricket
End of Season Awards - The Winners! | Sussex Cricket
Warwickshire Player Awards 2024 - Edgbaston
Jennings and Smale win headline End of Season Awards | Lancashire Cricket Club
Hat-Trick for Tom at End of Season Awards - Somerset
News, Views and Interviews
Tymal Mills awarded Testimonial Year | Sussex CCC
When all eyes of the cricket world were on Worcester | Yahoo Sport
Trouble with the Curve Ball - Grockles
Yorkshire ease financial woe with Castore deal | CityAM
ECB to make redundancies as part of decentralisation plan | Telegraph
MCC head of ticketing dismissed for gross misconduct | Business Live
Global Super League: Hampshire to feature in new competition in South America - BBC Sport
Tom Harrison in line to replace Geoff Allardice as ICC CEO | The Cricketer ($)
I left this until last because it is beyond depressing to think of this individual returning to cricket. But it just shows the importance of media rights to the business model as this is the only skill he brings to the table. The early deal he negotiated at ECB brought record television revenue but the unforgivable one he negotiated just before being forced out was the second major nail in county cricket’s coffin. The first was the “ambush” (Richard Gould’s words) that led to the tournament-that-shall-not-be named being voted through amid accusations of bullying and NDAs, according to Wisden 2020.
This took the focus as the ECB failed to act over racism claims at Yorkshire. Both events led to Harrison appearing in front of the DCMS Select Committee where he was tetchy, evasive and utterly exposed.
But sports business has rewarded him with a plum job at Six Nations rugby and, now, perhaps another at the ICC. So if ‘the market decides’ then I am clearly wrong.
Then again, listen to this podcast with the head of the agency the ECB used to create the tournament-that-shall-not-be-named. They are the darlings of the sports business world and have just made a key acquisition. The interviewee starts by arguing the “fan is the centre of everything” but, for the remainder, only talks of them as a commodity to be sold to. Just look at his quotes about traditional cricket fans in Ben Bloom’s Batting for Time. These are the people sport is listening to.
To re-iterate, we need more money in cricket, we need to find a new generation of fans and, above all, we need change. But their philosophy fails to pay its dues. My dad made me a fan of my teams, not any slick marketing plan. A whole load of history, tradition and illogical emotion has kept me going through thick and thin then a whole load thinner before a nice thick bit in the last decade.
Many football fans of my age love their teams but, at the very least, dislike much of their club’s activities and actively hate much of the sport’s crass commercialism. Our kids watch when their attention spans allow but only on TV. They cannot afford to go and there are too many other things to do these days.
Like the worst of British business, sport is becoming much better at squeezing every penny from your pocket while failing to make the investments, emotional or otherwise, which have underpinned the privileged, passionate position that prescribes it exceptional value in this country.
By way of contrast, listen to this podcast with Alex Fynn, one of the architects of the Premier League back in the early 90s. The parallels with cricket’s current position are stark. It is about power dynamics as much as money.
And consider how far the Premier League has moved from its original blueprint. It is considered a Great British export. The best league in the most important global sport. But it has evolved into a foreign-owned competition where clubs allied to rich nation-states can tie up the governing body in legal knots. The average ticket buyer is 42 years old and the average club loses the best part of £1m per week. Stadiums are infinitely better, and teams are star-studded but, via the turnstile, the club shop and the TV remote control, the fans have been forced to fund every single improvement. When there was no more media money to be had at home they looked overseas.
When that runs out the European Super League will rear its ugly head once more.
Because in 1992, a new engine was created for English football and, ever since, they have been shovelling more and more money into the furnace to keep the wheels turning faster.
Increasingly, the pursuit of glory has been subsumed by a ravenous pursuit of new revenue and a side-business created in selling a fairytale of something more substantial.
This will be English cricket’s future.
And it makes me rather sad.
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